2016 NFL Week 17 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)


2016 NFL Week 17 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)
M.D. Wright
12.31.2016

Absolutely brutal week. Several teams “shit the bed” straight up, and even several winners failed to cover spreads. A lot of surprises in Week 16, and we could be in store for several more in Week 17 with starters resting, a plethora of guys placed on IR for protection heading into 2017 and desperate teams clinging to playoff hopes. Week 17 is usually a bad week for handicapping games, but we’ll do our best to rebound and finish the regular season in strong fashion.

Last Week:
SU: 6-10
ATS: 5-11

Season:
SU: 154-84-2
ATS: 125-109-7


Week 17 Analysis Here: 
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee
My Call: HOU +4
Over/Under: Under 40.5

Analysis:
Houston has clinched their division title and the #4 seed, and, as such, will be resting their key players for the most part. Tennessee lost Marcus Mariota to a broken leg, and have Matt Cassel at QB. This will be ugly.

Call:
Houston                        17
Tennessee                    13
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
My Call: BUF -3.5
Over/Under: Under 42.5

Analysis:
Games like this are impossible to handicap. Buffalo is holding out Tyrod Taylor for contractual reasons, starting EJ Manuel, who has barely seen the field in any capacity all season, while the Jets spit in the face of the few season ticket holders they still have by trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game. How can one possibly know how this game will turn out with two unmotivated teams playing out the string behind two QBs that could turn the ball over several times?

Stay away.

Call:
Buffalo                       16
NY Jets                       10
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
My Call: CIN +1.5
Over/Under: Under 41.5

Analysis:
The same goes for this game. Plus there are several players injured and on the reserve list for both teams. Steve Smith claims this will be his final game in the NFL and he may try to go out with a bang.

Call:
Baltimore                     17
Cincinnati                    19
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
My Call: JAX +4.5
Over/Under: Over 47

Analysis:
Jacksonville appeared to be semi-competent on offense for the first time in months last week, not surprisingly the first game after Gus Bradley was fired. Their defense has been plenty good enough — just on the field far too frequently every game due to ineptitude on offense — and if they can follow up their Week 16 performance with another good one in Week 17, it will be a good springboard upon which Tom Coughlin can build to start the 2017 season with the Jags.

Call:
Jacksonville                   27
Indianapolis                  23
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
My Call: PHI -5.5
Over/Under: Under 43

Analysis:
Tony Romo will play, and some expect that if he plays well, it will spark a ton of speculation and talk during Dallas’ bye week next week. The Eagles would have been in position to play spoilers had there been different outcomes in Week 16, but they are known to be cheap shot artists, so Dallas is smart to rest certain players.

Call:
Dallas                      16
Philadelphia          22
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis, Minnesota
My Call: CHI +6.5
Over/Under: Under 43

Analysis:
No one cares about this game beyond fantasy football implications (if you are actually playing championships this week).

Call:
Chicago                      24
Minnesota                 17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
My Call: TB -3.5
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
However improbable and faint the Bucs’ playoff hopes remain, expect Jameis Winston to play the game the same as a national championship or how he did in the Pro Bowl. If the Redskins and Giants don’t tie, no other outcome even matters, however.

Call:
Carolina                          20
Tampa Bay                     30
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
My Call: CLE +5.5
Over/Under: Under 42.5

Analysis:
The Browns are playing to win and the Steelers are resting starters (specifically on offense). These are the types of games to avoid for wagering purposes.

Call:
Cleveland                        20
Pittsburgh                       17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
My Call: MIA +9
Over/Under: Over 44.5

Analysis:
Miami catching 9? Sure about that? Patriots have melted in the warmth of south Florida of late, while they thrive in their icebox in Foxborough this time of year. One of the few games featuring two teams with “something to play for”, the Dolphins have every incentive to win this game and go to Houston (if Kansas City loses to San Diego) instead of Pittsburgh, and despite the narrative that “New England doesn’t care where or when they play someone” they will want homefield advantage. The thing is, they will have it regardless, because Oakland is unlikely to get beyond their first playoff game, even if it isn’t until the divisional playoff.

Call:
New England                      23
Miami                                  27
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New York Football Giants vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
My Call: NYG +7.5
Over/Under: Under 46

Analysis:
The Giants may have cemented the #5 seed as a wild card, but they are playing their regulars and need all the reps they can get as their offense has never once gotten out of second gear all season. Washington is desperate and all, but they have a ton of key injuries and have been unable to run the football for weeks now. Jordan Reed may try to play, but he is clearly limited in his effectiveness, and he is the only real threat to the Giants defense that only has one weakness: it has struggled against tight ends that can run like wide receivers after the catch, as Reed can do. The Giants owe Washington after blowing a 21-9 lead and losing due to a dubious roughing the passer call against Olivier Vernon, leading to the game winning points in Week 3.

The Giants can also eliminate the Redskins with a win.

Call:
NY Giants                         23
Washington                     17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
My Call: NO +8
Over/Under: Over 57

Analysis:
Let’s see here: the Falcons are aiming to nail down the #2 seed and  a first round bye (among other reasons, to allow for Julio Jones to rest his toe injury) while the Saints are playing spoilers the past few weeks; eliminating the Cards and (virtually) Bucs in back to back games.

Call:
New Orleans                             34
Atlanta                                       30
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, California
My Call: ARZ -6.5
Over/Under: Under 40.5

Analysis:
Besides fantasy implications, no one cares. Just take the under.

Call:
Arizona                      19
Los Angeles               9
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
My Call: KC -4
Over/Under: Under 45

Analysis:
Likely the last game for the Bolts at the “Q” but that’s about where the storylines end. They have 19 guys on IR and the Chiefs have every motivation to win this game and potentially win the AFC West and secure a #2 seed.

Call:
Kansas City                    26
San Diego                       17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, California
My Call: SF +9
Over/Under: Under 43

Analysis:
The 49ers would like nothing more than to force Seattle to have to play on Wild Card weekend. They don’t quite have the horses to exploit the obvious new issues with the Seahawks defense, but they will cover this spread.

Call:
Seattle                        19
San Francisco           17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
My Call: OAK +1.5
Over/Under: Under 40.5

Analysis:
The Raiders have enough to beat Denver in this game, but beyond that? Who knows…

Call:
Oakland                20
Denver                  10
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: DET +3
Over/Under: Under 49.5

Analysis:
The spread (home team gives 3 by default, so the Lions are actually touchdown home dogs here) tells you all you need to know about how this game will be officiated. But never underestimate a team coming off a loss in which they feel like they were reamed by the officials the previous week.

Call:
Green Bay                  23
Detroit                        24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

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