2016 NFL Week 16 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Analysis Embedded)


2016 NFL Week 16 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Analysis Embedded)
M.D. Wright
12.23.2016

Last week was more on par with the historical norms, and we hope to finish the season strongly in Week 16 and 17.

Last Week:
SU: 11-5
ATS: 10-5-1

Season
SU: 148-74-2
ATS: 120-98-7
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Audio: Week 16 Bettor’s Guide

NYG (-2.5, Did Not Cover, Money Line, Did Not Cover)

Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: CHI +3
Over/Under: Over 47.5

Analysis:
The Redskins put themselves in a precarious position, needing to win out and requiring tons of help to make the playoffs as the second wild card. The Bears nearly knocked off the Packers despite an awful first half by Matt Barkley. The Bears did come back in the 2nd half, and the Redskins have a spate of injuries — including to Kirk Cousins’ favorite target, Jordan Reed; questionable for this game. That changes the way the Skins move the football. They were unable to run the ball against Carolina, and the Bears, save for the Green Bay game, have been solid against the run. Do not be surprised if Chicago wins.

Call:
Washington                    26
Chicago                            29
FINAL
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
New Era Field
Orchard Park, New York
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: MIA +4.5
Over/Under: Under 42

Analysis:
Just can’t trust the Bills in this situation, even if it is believed that everyone loves Rex and wants to do whatever they can to save his job. The Fins know they can win (with a Denver loss) and clinch a playoff berth. Even with Matt Moore at the helm, Miami can make plays against a Bills defense that loves to blitz and take chances.

Call:
Miami                        21
Buffalo                       17
FINAL
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: TB +3.5
Over/Under: Over 52

Analysis:
Tampa can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a couple of other scenarios taking place in Week 16. We know the Saints are a high flying offense at home, but their defense has massive issues, and now with Kenny Vaccaro out, they are even more vulnerable against the pass. Jameis Winston can only hope that Gosder Cherilus can actually block someone this week, as it is appears that Demar Dotson is in line to miss another game, having not cleared concussion protocol.

Call:
Tampa Bay                  31
New Orleans               27
FINAL
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: CAR +3
Over/Under: Under 51

Analysis:
The Falcons are a different team on the road, and the Panthers are in full spoiler mode. They’ve got one down and hope to hinder both the Falcons and Buccaneers’ hopes in back to back weeks. The Panthers defense has been better the past couple of games, but make no mistake, they miss Luke Kuechly. Julio Jones will be back for this game, but unless the Falcons can stop the run, which Carolina will feature plenty of, they’re going to find it hard to exploit Jones against the Panthers’ secondary (which has been better in the second half of the season).

Call:
Atlanta                         23
Carolina                       27
FINAL
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: MIN +6.5
Over/Under: Under 43

Analysis:
Believe it or not, this is a tough call. We just watched the Bears nearly knock off Green Bay last week (and a crooked call against the Bears in a goal to go situation had a hand in that not occurring). Adrian Peterson will not play, and may have played his final game for Minnesota last week. Yes, we know the Packers have found something with Ty Montgomery in the backfield and Aaron Rodgers has been able to hit his receivers with more efficacy downfield in recent weeks, but the Vikes will stuff the run and make that passing attack a bit more of a struggle. We know the Vikes don’t have much offensively, but a low scoring, close game favors Minnesota, and that’s what this will be.

Call:
Minnesota                  19
Green Bay                   17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: NE -16.5
Over/Under: Over 43.5

Analysis:
Does anyone care? For what it’s worth, this line is probably pushing it a bit too far. The Jets defense has matched up well with New England, despite not doing so against most everyone else. We do believe the Patriots will run away with it late (with help) as the #1 seed is hanging in the balance.

Call:
NY Jets                           16
New England               34
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: TEN -5
Over/Under: Under 43.5

Analysis:
We believe in the Titans. You expect the Jags to be a bit better offensively with Doug Marrone as interim head coach, but the defense may take a hit as a result.

Call:
Tennessee               24
Jacksonville            17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: SD -4
Over/Under: Over 43.5

Analysis:
Come on fam.

Call:
San Diego                          27
Cleveland                          20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: OAK -3.5
Over/Under: Over 53

Analysis:
Tough call. The Raiders offense has sloughed through the past few games since Derek Carr injured his finger. Additionally, Amari Cooper (whether it is his back or the coverages he is facing) has been shut out of the offense almost completely during the time since that injury. The Colts are coming off an impressive and important win, as they remain alive in the wild card hunt (and, potentially, the division — although that goes away with a Houston win). Andrew Luck is a strange guy. He plays his best games against the best defenses in the league and has some of his worst games against pedestrian-to-bad defenses. The Raiders should be getting Mario Edwards, Jr. back for this game, and should have had Aldon Smith back a month ago, but alas, the Raiders defensive play belies their statistical ranking.

Side Note: We’re talking the difference in 10-20 yards per game and 2-4 points per game separating about a dozen teams or so when we talk about these defensive rankings. Granted, the Raiders are in the bottom third in most categories, but stats don’t show how Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin continually close out games for them defensively.

Call:
Indianapolis                         24
Oakland                                 30
FINAL


San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, California
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: LA -4.5
Over/Under: Under 39.5

Analysis:
You’d be a sucker to go anywhere near that spread. No need to analyze what will be such a putridly played game.

Call:
San Francisco                         16
Los Angeles                            23
FINAL
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field
Seattle, Washington
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: SEA -7.5
Over/Under: Over 43

Analysis:
The Cards are shutting down Tyrann Mathieu and Seattle is a completely different team at home on offense. The Cards have been eliminated, the Seahawks are looking to sew up the #2 seed and a first round bye. You decide.

Call:
Arizona                  13
Seattle                   31
FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
NRG Stadium
Houston, Texas
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SPECIAL
Saturday, December 24, 2016
My Call: Pick ’em (Houston)
Over/Under: Under 42

Analysis:
The Texans have the division on the line, and can clinch with a win. AJ Green will play, but the Bengals have not shown that they can play a full 60 minute game all season. The Texans are markedly better with Tom Savage at the helm, and with the division title hanging in the balance, Bill O’Brien correctly made the decision to start Savage before Brock Osweiler threw away the division to the Titans.

Call:
Cincinnati                   15
Houston                      19
FINAL
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Sunday, December 25, 2016
4:25 PM EST
My Call: PIT -6
Over/Under: Over 44

Analysis:
The Steelers are infinitely more efficient offensively at home, and it will show in this game. Baltimore stifled Le’Veon Bell in their first meeting, before he had yet to unleash and get untracked this season. They still may slow him on the ground, but he will affect the Ravens defense in the passing game, and Jimmy Smith’s ostensible absence will allow Antonio Brown and others to stress the Baltimore secondary that much more. The Ravens just don’t have enough bullets (not a pun, really just caught myself on that, for those who are NBA historians) on offense to do enough to win this game.

Call:
Baltimore                        17
Pittsburgh                      31
FINAL
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: KC -3
Over/Under: Over 37

Analysis:
We haven’t seen much of anything from Denver’s offense of late, and that won’t change in this one. Considering the mediocre defenses they’ve faced (Jacksonville, Tennessee, New England) do you really expect a repeat of the game in Denver? This is Arrowhead, where it is loud and feverish, and the Chiefs have a chance to still win the division. Yes, Denver is still alive for the playoffs, but their offense just seems like a lost cause this year.

Call:
Denver                      13
Kansas City             27
FINAL
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Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: DET +6.5
Over/Under: Over 44

Analysis:
Thanks to criminal officiating in Philadelphia on Thursday night, Dallas clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, which could portend to be a nightmare scenario for them for a plethora of reasons. You can expect to see Tony Romo at some point, which in and of itself opens another Pandora’s Box for Dallas, and the team will play its starters, but with caution, while the Lions are looking to solidify their grasp on the NFC North. If Romo plays in either or both of Dallas’ final two games, with a bye week in the first round of the playoffs, Jerry Jones will be even more compelled to force Jason Garrett’s hand and disrupt Dallas’ run. We all know Dallas will lose in the divisional playoff anyway, but this couldn’t be more hilarious. Detroit will win this game.

Call:
Detroit                          26
Dallas                            20
FINAL
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