2016 NFL Week 6 Bettor’s Guide


2016 NFL Week 6 Bettor’s Guide
M.D. Wright
10.13.2016

Last week was alright, although there were a lot of spreads that were blown due to final drives going one way versus the other (including a couple of backdoor covers that were predicted and fell just short), but picking winners has always been a strong point; and Week 5 was more of the same in that regard.

Last Week:
SU: 11-3
ATS: 7-7

SU: 50-27
ATS: 40-37


Week 6:
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: SD +3
Over/Under: Over 45

Analysis:
The Bolts have invented ways to lose games unlike any team in recent memory in any sport. The home team in these Thursday Night Football games tend to fare better on the short weeks, even though both teams here had to travel. San Diego has played well for 55 minutes in most games, and without several key players on both sides of the ball. They just have no finish. Despite their shortcomings thus far this season, we still think the Bolts will finally figure it out; although not without some drama.

Call:
Denver                          23
San Diego                    26
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
My Call: CIN +8.5
Over/Under: Over 47

Analysis:
Until the Bengals get Tyler Eifert on the field and productive in full football mode, it was clear in Dallas that Cincinnati is going to struggle to score consistently.

Call:
Cincinnati                  24
New England             28
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
My Call: NYG -3
Over/Under: Under 43.5

Analysis:
Both teams’ offenses make you hide your eyes. In the case of Baltimore, it is understandable, but with the Giants, it is galling.

Should be a low-scoring slugfest with a good bit of ugly football, especially with the number of injuries on both sides.

Call:
Baltimore                       16
NY Giants                      20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
My Call: NO +3
Over/Under: Over 53.5

Analysis:
The Panthers are not good. 2015 is over. We cannot reiterate this enough. The Saints are a tough team to slow down offensively at home, and the Panthers have had trouble slowing down anyone this season; even Blaine Gabbert.

Call:
Carolina                      26
New Orleans              34
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
My Call: PIT -7.5
Over/Under: Under 47.5

Analysis:
Let’s not.

Call:
Pittsburgh                 33
Miami                         13
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
My Call: JAX +2.5
Over/Under: Under 47

Analysis:
One can only hope that the Jaguars, with seemingly forever off after their London game, will have worked out the kinks on defense with the amount of talent that they possess on that side of the ball; given that this is Gus Bradley’s supposed calling card. The Bears are an utter disaster.

Call:
Jacksonville                      26
Chicago                              20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
New Era Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
My Call: SF +7.5
Over/Under: Under 44.5

Analysis:
Seems just like yesterday that we were speculating about Rex Ryan’s future with Buffalo. He righted the ship just in time. Colin Kaepernick is returning to the field as starter for San Francisco, and with his new extension, which forfeits injury protections and playing with a team that is bereft of talent, it is probably the worst time for Colin to return to the field. The Bills are kicking ass and taking names of late.

Call:
San Francisco                    20
Buffalo                                24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
My Call: DET -3
Over/Under: Under 43.5

Analysis:
Both of these teams are unpredictable.

You don’t know what you’re going to get from either offense (or defense) from one game to the next, it seems. When in doubt, go with the home team.

Call:
Los Angeles                       16
Detroit                                20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee
My Call: CLE +7
Over/Under: Under 43.5

Analysis:
Yuck.

Call:
Cleveland                         15
Tennessee                       19
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
My Call: PHI -2.5
Over/Under: Over 44.5

Analysis:
The Redskins are likely to be without Kirk Cousins’ security blanket, Jordan Reed (concussion) for this game, which complicates things for a team that has a bevy of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. However, we just saw the Eagles struggle on the road against an equally subpar Lions team, so who really knows when it comes to these “rivalry” games.

Call:
Philadelphia                       34
Washington                       24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
My Call: OAK -1
Over/Under: Over 46.5

Analysis:
This (or Atlanta vs. Seattle) should be the game of the week nationally, to be quite honest. People are tired of watching Dallas every week. We love the Raiders over here. The Chiefs have diversified their offense a BIT, but still do not pass the ball downfield enough to be taken seriously; particularly against a team that does so relentlessly as the Raiders (and the Steelers before them, against the Chiefs). This is about as evenly matched that a game can be, and then the rivalry aspect can be factored in, as well.

Call:
Kansas City                         26
Oakland                               31
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field
Seattle, Washington
My Call: ATL +6.5
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
Seattle is coming off a bye, presumably giving Russell Wilson time to recover from an assortment of nicks and bumps that had him hobbling around on both legs (and passing for over 300 yards) just before the bye. With permutations that will have an effect on who likely ends up with a potential first round playoff bye, the winner of this game will have an important tiebreaker (presuming Atlanta does not go into one of its patented late-season swoons) at the end of the regular season.

Then there is Julio Jones vs. Richard Sherman. Mercy.

Call:
Atlanta                           27
Seattle                            30
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
AMERICA’S GAME OF THE WEEK
My Call: GB -4.5
Over/Under: Under 47.5

Analysis:
Dak Prescott gets humbled. Which is weeks too late in occurring.

Side Note: Who else is sick and tired of seeing Dallas on the Game of the Week at 4:25 or in primetime? Goodness.

Call:
Dallas                          17
Green Bay                  27
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
NRG Stadium
Houston, Texas
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: HOU -3
Over/Under: Over 46.5

Analysis:
Houston has not exactly lit up the skies (mostly due to Brock Osweiler’s inefficiencies and lack of experience as an NFL starter), although you’d think they would with the weapons they have. But without the right QB to drive the vehicle, what do you expect from those star players?

The only reason to take the Texans and the points is because the Colts are on the road and have no real defense to speak of; it may be an igniter for the Texans offense.

Call:
Indianapolis                     20
Houston                             31
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: ARZ -7.5
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
The Jets can’t cover anyone, and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s tenure as starter of the Jets should be coming to a close soon (if Todd Bowles is not asleep at the wheel).

Call:
NY Jets                       19
Arizona                     34
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

BYE: Minnesota (5-0), Tampa Bay (2-3).

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