2016 NFL Week 13 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)


2016 NFL Week 13 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)
M.D. Wright
12.2.2016

Week 13 Bettor’s Guide Audio

Last week was probably the best week of handicapping we have had in ages, and, if Seattle had defeated Tampa, we would have gone 16-0 on money lines for the first time in over 15 years. We had a couple of pushes on spreads, as well, which skewed the numbers a bit. However, as it is…

Last Week:
SU: 15-1
ATS: 10-4-2

Season:
SU: 118-57-2
ATS: 94-79-6


Week 13: Thursday Night Football: MIN +3 (Covered), DAL (Money Line Hit)

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
My Call: DEN -3.5
Over/Under: Under 39.5

Analysis:
The Jaguars will be without Allen Hurns and Chris Ivory, which further exacerbates matters for the Jags offense that struggles for entire halves to even move the ball at times. Malik Jackson and Julius Thomas get to host their former teammates again, and the B-men are desperate to maintain pace in the AFC Wild Card, as the Dolphins have won six straight to manage identical 7-4 records. Trevor Siemian was beaten up pretty soundly by Justin Houston and the Chiefs on Sunday night, and therefore did not practice all week and will not play. Paxton Lynch will get his second career start in this one. He looked good in relief of Siemian vs. Tampa, but not the following week. The Jags defense is but a mere speed bump. Expect Denver to do just enough to cover.

Call:
Denver                     20
Jacksonville            10
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
My Call: KC +5
Over/Under: Under 49

Analysis:
Everyone knows the Chiefs’ M.O. by now: they are never out of any game, they like to grind and wear down the opposing offenses, and get important plays at critical junctures. We know the Falcons can score, although that should be stifled a bit in this game. Justin Houston was banged up at some point during the week in preparation for this game, but is expected to play, and it appears that Dee Ford will return to the lineup after tweaking his hamstring a couple of weeks ago. Expect the Chiefs pass rush to give Matt Ryan fits for much of the game, similar to the Falcons’ game in Philadelphia a few weeks ago. The question is, can the Chiefs do enough against the paltry Falcons defense? We’ll see. May be another “whoever has the ball last wins” scenario. Chiefs covering seems like somewhat of a lock, though.

Call:
Kansas City                      24
Atlanta                              23
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
My Call: HOU +6.5
Over/Under: Under 44.5

Analysis:
Green Bay is in a must-win situation every week for the rest of the way, here. Expect them to play with that level of urgency on both sides of the football. The offense may be able to muster such in large part due to the scheme and design of their offensive gameplan, but the defense cannot take much away from facing a rookie quarterback (Carson Wentz) who has been figured out, and arguably the league’s worst set of receivers in Philadelphia. The Packers were giving up nearly 40 points per game in the three games preceding the Eagles match up. The Texans are not a great offense by any means, but they do have Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, Braxton Miller and Will Fuller with which to exploit the Packers defense. They also have CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin at tight end who both play roles in the passing attack. Jaelen Strong will miss this, his fourth straight game, due to an ankle injury.

Green Bay’s secondary will be tested more than it was on Monday night. It is difficult to take the Texans straight up, but we do believe they will cover.

Call:
Houston                        17
Green Bay                    20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
My Call: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: Under 41.5

Analysis:
This is bad football on tap. Just close your eyes and take a pick or avoid it altogether. Not worthy of analysis.

Call:
Philadelphia                     13
Cincinnati                         16
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
My Call: DET +6
Over/Under: Over 53

Analysis:
The Saints are at home, so you know that this means a higher scoring game. The Lions can stop the Saints at times, but on what will likely be 11 or 12 possessions for each team, do you think the Lions can score on 7 or 8 of those possessions, as the Saints likely will? That is tough.

Call:
Detroit                       27
New Orleans             31
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
My Call: SF -1
Over/Under: Under 43.5

Analysis:
NEXT!

Call:
San Francisco                   24
Chicago                              13
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
My Call: LA +13.5
Over/Under: Under 44

Analysis:
People are understating how important Gronkowski’s absence is to the Patriots offense. He was their only deep threat. Tom Brady loves to get the run game going with LeGarrette Blount, dump it off a couple of times to James White in the flat, or underneath to Julian Edelman, then come back to the stretch play action, with a pass downfield against what is often single high safety coverage. It is almost literally the only time Brady passes the ball more than 15 yards downfield. That is now gone. Teams can keep their safeties back a bit more often, and expect the Patriots to run the ball more, and utilize Edelman underneath more frequently. Malcolm Mitchell will have to show his worth down the stretch here. The Rams will have opportunities to make plays against a pedestrian defense (even if there are people who would lead you to believe the Patriots defense is actually good), but the rookie quarterback Jared Goff will have to make throws in the 4th quarter that he may not be able to make.

Plus the officiating factor.

Call:
Los Angeles                  16
New England               24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
My Call: MIA +3.5
Over/Under: Under 40.5

Analysis:
These two teams mirror each other in terms of style of play. The Fins are better at their style offensively, while the Ravens are better at theirs defensively. This isn’t necessarily a “something has to give” scenario, but if Jimmy Smith misses another game, the Ravens are going to have problems with Jarvis Landry, even if Davante Parker cannot go. The Ravens have serious issues with getting into the end zone. Justin Tucker had to nail four field goals last week vs. Cincinnati, and this week can be another one of those scenarios.

Call:
Miami                          20
Baltimore                    15
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
My Call: OAK -3
Over/Under: Over 48.5

Analysis:
Do not understand the pundits picking Buffalo here. No Robert Woods. No Percy Harvin. A gimpy Sammy Watkins. Yes, the Bills have the best rushing attack in the NFL, but it is a statistical anomaly if the perception is that the Raiders cannot slow the Bills’ ground game.

The thing is, the Bills play a ton of man coverage and Ronald Darby has been in and out of the lineup and shaky at times, and Stephon Gilmore has gotten burned quite a bit this season in addition to Darby’s play. Gilmore has gone so far as to play the preemptive Phil Jackson game with the officials regarding Michael Crabtree’s propensity for pushing off defensive backs — something everyone knows he does all game every game, the officials are not going to call it unless it is egregious — as if that’s going to help him with Rex Ryan’s proclivity for playing so much press man coverage. These guys have to be perfect on the outside, and Crabtree and Amari Cooper are too good at route running to expect that to hold up all game.

Oh by the way, the Raiders are 10th in the league in rushing, so it isn’t as if they are the Vikings or Giants in this regard.

Call:
Buffalo                       23
Oakland                     27
FINAL


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
My Call: TB +3.5
Over/Under: Over 47.5

Analysis:
The Bolts have even more injuries coming into this game, which may be a bit too much to overcome. However, Tyrell Williams is expected to be one of those injury-plagued players who is expected to play on Sunday.

Jameis Winston is in 2013 mode.

You do not bet against 2013 Jameis Winston.

Call:
Tampa Bay                       26
San Diego                         23
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
My Call: ARZ -1
Over/Under: Under 48

Analysis:
The Cards play stiffer defense at home. Tyrann Mathieu will be a gametime decision, but DJ Swearinger has not been that much of a drop off at free safety when Mathieu has been out; particularly since Mathieu hasn’t been 100% all season.

Washington will be without Jordan Reed, which changes the way the Skins operate offensively. He is a chain mover and big play guy. Other than Desean Jackson, that aspect goes away, except when teams play off Jamison Crowder in the slot. The Cards are one of the few teams that match up well with what Washington does, however.

Call:
Washington                       22
Arizona                               24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New York Football Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
AMERICA’S GAME OF THE WEEK
My Call: NYG +6
Over/Under: Over 48.5

Analysis:
This line does not make much sense. Yes, the Steelers are generally better both offensively and defensively at home than they have been away, but their defense hasn’t been good at all in any venue. The offense is more efficient at home, but they are facing the best defense they have faced all season other than Baltimore’s, and we saw what happened there. The Giants have likely withheld certain offensive wrinkles in the past couple of weeks because they didn’t need to do as much to defeat the Bears and Browns, avoiding putting more things on tape with this game and three division games remaining in the four games thereafter.

With the way the Giants deploy their secondary and linebackers, Antonio Brown isn’t the main concern. Le’Veon Bell will be held relatively in check on the ground, but he can get loose in the short passing game. The wild card for the Steelers against the Giants defense is Ladarius Green, the speedy tight end.

However, the Steelers have little to no pass rush, and can be exploited over the middle of the field and deep by Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. This could be a high scoring game, but not really a shootout, because the Giants defense is good enough to get off the field more frequently than the Steelers.

Consider officiating in a game like this before wagering, you don’t want to kick a hole in the wall when the game is going like you expected and a phantom call or a blatant no-call changes everything as it did during Thursday Night Football in Week 13.

Call:
NY Giants                          29
Pittsburgh                         24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field
Seattle, Washington
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: SEA -7
Over/Under: Under 44

Analysis:
Too much is being made of Richard Sherman’s statement, which was made purely in jest, regarding the NFC Divisional Playoff and Cam Newton tossing a “12th Man” banner at Bank of America Stadium. That has no bearing on this game. Besides, Cam Newton was still in Oakland watching Golden State take on Houston on Thursday night, it cannot serve as any more motivation for the Panthers.

Luke Kuechly did not practice all week and therefore will not play in this game. The Panthers miss him dearly in coverage. Carolina may be able to slow the Seahawks rushing attack, but they are going to get exploited in pass coverage, and the Panthers offense simply won’t be able to score enough to win this game; Seattle will have both Earl Thomas and Deshawn Shead back for this game, as well.

Call:
Carolina                              16
Seattle                                26
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: IND -1.5
Over/Under: Under 49

Analysis:
Why.

WHY?!?!

Call:
Indianapolis                    24
NY Jets                               17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

BYE: Cleveland (0-12), Tennessee (6-6).

2016 NFL Week 13 Powre Rankings


2016 NFL Week 13 Powre Rankings
M.D. Wright
11.29.2016

1. Dallas Cowboys (10-1).
Not for long, though.

2. Oakland Raiders (9-2).
We are still waiting to see if they get Aldon Smith and Mario Edwards, Jr. back.

3. New York Football Giants (8-3).
The Giants defense is top notch. Ben McAdoo’s play-calling is still baffling for long stretches of games, but the supposition is that they’re not doing too much until they have to, considering competition.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3).
Kansas City just LOVES these muck-it-up games. We tell you guys this fact every week. They THRIVE in scenarios just as they found themselves on Sunday night.

5. New England Patriots (9-2).
They don’t scare anyone. Their offense is disjointed, Brady is beat up, and so is Gronkowski. Their defense isn’t all that. It boggles the mind how people are just throwing them into the Super Bowl with a pedestrian defense. There are four teams in the AFC that could beat them. Not the least being San Diego if they SOMEHOW make the playoffs.

6. Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1).
Seattle clearly missed Earl Thomas on Sunday, along with Michael Bennett. However, that is not why they lost. Tampa was clearly fueled by their emotional support of Alterraun Verner, who lost his father last week. Tampa’s defense has not looked that ferocious in several years. Add to it that it was another game where Darrell Bevell completely failed to prepare his offense and you get 14-5.

7. Detroit Lions (7-4).
The Lions know how to play tight games. This will bode well for them down the stretch.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-4).
We still do not trust the Falcons’ defense, and their offense has not proven to be portable against good defenses. The Eagles weren’t even a good defense when they squared off three weeks ago, and were virtually shut down. Seattle shut Atlanta down with just a FG before Kris Richard (defensive coordinator) backed off into extremely soft zones, which led to the Falcons’ touchdowns in the 2nd half.

9. Denver Broncos (7-4).
The B-men are in trouble. They are 1-3 in the division (as are the Chargers) and if chalk holds, and the Bolts and Denver finish 10-6, the Chargers would own that tiebreaker for the wild card.

10. Miami Dolphins (7-4).
The Fins are getting it done, no matter how aesthetically pleasing it may or may not be.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5).
Jameis Winston is in 2013 mode. Dallas should beware in three weeks.

12. Buffalo Bills (6-5).
The Bills still look like an 8-8 team to us.

13. Washington Redskins (6-4-1).
Dallas fans swear they fear Washington, who can’t stop anyone, and whose most lethal receiving threat is operating at 50% for the rest of the season, and not the team that actually beat them. This team isn’t good enough to beat anyone in the playoffs on the road.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5).
The Steelers have gotten two relatively easy wins now, but they cannot relax with the Football Giants coming to town.

15. Baltimore Ravens (6-5).
We’ll see about them down the stretch here, they have to figure out how to spark their offense, instead of listening to Joe Flacco spew woulda-coulda-shouldas after losses.

16. Minnesota Vikings (6-5).
The Vikes have a short week to prepare for Dallas. Their defense will be up for the task. Will their offense? After Sam Bradford was beaten up yet again?

17. Tennessee Titans (6-6).
Do the Titans have enough to usurp the Texans and win the AFC South? Offensively, they do. Can Mariota avoid the back-breaking turnovers late in close games? We’ll see.

18. San Diego Chargers (5-6).
Of the teams that are on the outside looking in on the wild card hunt in both conferences, the Bucs and Bolts are two teams no one will want to face.

19. Houston Texans (6-5).
This team is not good, and their record is finally reflective of such.

20. New Orleans Saints (5-6).
It is known that the Saints are lethal at home, the Rams just found out. Added in with the Gregg Williams/Bountygate angle, and the Saints clearly ran up the score in the 2nd half.

21. Green Bay Packers (5-6).
No, beating a rookie quarterback who has been figured out, with no receivers, no running game, and arguably the worst secondary in the NFC does not mean the Packers are “back.” Just take the win and hope for the best moving forward. Packers fans are going to get full of themselves again, though.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (5-6).
So much for “Wentzylvania” huh? If he keeps this up, they may be looking to run him back to North Dakota.

23. Indianapolis Colts (5-6).
This is the biggest “whatever” team out there.

24. Carolina Panthers (4-7).
They were missing Luke Kuechly on Sunday, and that was not lost on the Raiders, who went after his stand-in, AJ Klein ALL GAME.

25. Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1).
Goodbye Cards.

26. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1).
Unless Mike Brown suddenly had a lobotomy and changed his penny-pinching ways, no, this season is not going to get Marvin Lewis fired.

27. Los Angeles Rams (4-7).
Let us hope this Eric Dickerson-Jeff Fisher blowup is enough to get Fisher up out of here. No one has had a job for this long, failing miserably, without being fired like Fisher has.

28. Chicago Bears (2-9).
The Bears are competitively tanking. It is an art.

29. New York Jets (3-8).
The Jets aren’t really even trying to tank. They’re just bad, and found a way to lose a game that they should have (and were trying to win) won, but didn’t. Yet again.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9).
Greatest 2-9 team Rex has ever seen?

31. San Francisco 49ers (1-10).
The 49ers have been competitive ever since Colin Kaepernick has assumed the starting quarterback position. He has played extremely well for the most part. They are just deficient in the talent department on defense. Kiko Alonso needs to keep his mouth shut, however.

32. Cleveland Browns (0-12).
The Browns must have used some of their cap space to pay the officials to keep that game close for as long as possible. The refs took a Giants punt return touchdown by Odell Beckham off the board with a phantom holding call, and a few other bogus calls that stalled Giants drives in a game that should have easily been a 38-10 type of game.

2016 NFL Week 12 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)


2016 NFL Week 12 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)
M.D. Wright
11.26.2016

Audio Analysis Here

Last week was weird; particularly with the spreads. Missed a couple of them by the hook, then had a couple other pushes. Overall, we did fine picking winners’ money lines, but that is to be expected from us.

Last Week:
SU: 10-4
ATS: 7-5-2

Season:
SU: 103-56-2
ATS: 84-75-4
_________________________________________________________________

Week 12: Detroit and points, Dallas and points, Pittsburgh and points (2-1)

San Diego Chargers vs. Houston Texans
NRG Stadium
Houston, Texas
My Call: SD -2
Over/Under: Under 46

Analysis:
The Chargers are coming off a much-needed bye, as the Texans return from Mexico after a Monday night game vs. Oakland. While the Texans showed a bit more on offense than they had of late, those instances have been few and far between this season. The Bolts are a desperate team, sitting at 4-6, but they are in the thick of it in terms of wild card hopes. We just do not think the  Texans can score enough to win this game, even though their defense should be able to slow San Diego somewhat with their rather stifling defense. Philip Rivers usually does not follow up ghastly games with another, which bears reminder.

Call:
San Diego               27
Houston                  17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
My Call: TEN -6
Over/Under: Over 41.5

Analysis:
None required.

Call:
Tennessee                   31
Chicago                        10
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
New Era Field
Orchard Park, New York
My Call: BUF -7.5
Over/Under: Over 45

Analysis:
It is difficult to trust the Bills with this many points, because they have tendencies that lend to them “playing down” to competition. Rex Ryan already said that he views the Jaguars as the best 2-8 team he’s seen. You can be cynical and suggest that he’s building in an alibi should the Bills lose, but beyond that, the Bills could stifle Bortles for three quarters, and then back off defensively before he begins stat padding against a soft base, which could lead to a backdoor cover. Be careful if you are thinking of the spread, for the aforementioned reason.

Call:
Jacksonville                     20
Buffalo                              30
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
My Call: BAL -3.5
Over/Under: Under 40.5

Analysis:
The Bengals will obviously be without the services of AJ Green and Gio Bernard. That may be enough to stall their chances, even though the Ravens will be without Jimmy Smith on the outside as well. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd simply aren’t enough, as Tyler Eifert can be neutralized by CJ Mosley and Zach Orr. The Ravens yield the fewest rushing yards of anyone in the NFL, so Jeremy Hill will have to find another way to do damage. As long as the Ravens do not have mounds of turnovers and three-and-outs on offense, the Bengals just do not have enough bullets in the chamber.

Call:
Cincinnati                   13
Baltimore                    19
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
My Call: ARZ +5
Over/Under: Over 51

Analysis:
Something is up with Carson Palmer, but it isn’t quite clear. Nevertheless, the Falcons will be without their best defensive back in Desmond Trufant, for this game. The Cards defense has been disappointing at times, and lockdown at others. They may be getting Tyrann Mathieu back for this game, which can only help. The Cards have a lot of things to be looking out for, Devonta Freeman on the ground, Tevin Coleman on the ground, both out of the backfield in the passing game, and the elephant in the room, Julio Jones. This could be one of those “whoever has the ball last wins” types of games. We trust the Falcons to go get points at home in a “must” situation more than the Cards.

Call:
Arizona                      27
Atlanta                       31
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
My Call: SF +7
Over/Under: Under 45

Analysis:
The 49ers are bad, but the Dolphins showed in LA last week that they are not good enough to be trusted with a touchdown, either. SF will keep it close.

Call:
San Francisco                    13
Miami                                 17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
My Call: NO -7
Over/Under: Over 45.5

Analysis:
We’d give the Rams half of a chance at home, but it’s going to be tough for Jared Goff to go tit for tat with Drew Brees on his home turf, where the Saints are exponentially better than when on the road.

Call:
Los Angeles                      17
New Orleans                    34
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New York Football Giants vs. Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
My Call: NYG -7
Over/Under: Over 44

Analysis:
The Browns are bad at everything, but mostly because they have talent deficiencies at key positions. The areas where they do have talent, however, should not be overlooked (WR, LB, TE). The Giants should be able to get whatever they want for most of the game, but as is known about the Giants, they often do not take whatever they want when it is given to them, preferring to keep the opposition in the game. The Browns could do this, so the +7 is tenuous for the Browns. The Giants defense is rolling now, which should quell those concerns somewhat.

Call:
NY Giants                      31
Cleveland                      16
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
My Call: TB +6
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
This is an interesting game for a few reasons. Earl Thomas is out for Seattle, which changes some of the things Seattle does with coverages. They play a lot of Cover 1, which is a man look, which is a single high safety look (with Thomas being the last line of defense on the back end) and some Cover 3, both with Thomas reading the quarterback in “center field” while flanked by two defensive backs, culminating in what is colloquially referred to as a “deep thirds” (the three defensive backs in coverage each cover one-third of the field across the back end). Jameis Winston can make any and every throw on the field, and he has Mike Evans. Expect to see more man coverages from Seattle in this game, which means a good amount of Richard Sherman against Evans. Winston has other weapons, including Adam Humphries, which is the slot receiver that can often rack up yardage underneath the Seahawks’ defense. Winston’s newfound connection with Cecil Shorts has been palpable, along with the Cameron Brate. Russell Wilson will be under siege from the Bucs’ front seven, but the Bucs’ secondary is vulnerable. This could turn into a shootout. We even like the Bucs outside chance at winning, but we won’t go that far. We’ll just take them to cover.

Call:
Seattle                          26
Tampa Bay                  23
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
My Call: OAK -3
Over/Under: Over 49

Analysis:
We do not trust the Panthers on the road without Luke Kuechly against this high octane offense. The end.

Call:
Carolina                          24
Oakland                          38
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
My Call: NE -7.5
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
The Jets simply do not have enough on either side of the ball to cover this spread.

Call:
New England                      34
NY Jets                                  13
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: KC +3.5
Over/Under: Over 39

Analysis:
We like the Chiefs defense. They will keep this game close, for one. They may even score a touchdown on that side of the ball with Marcus Peters back. Justin Houston should have his legs under him even more so after getting a warm up game against Tampa last week. Trevor Siemian has been mostly careful with the ball, but something is just… off with the Broncos’ offense. It appears disjointed and is inconsistent in scoring points. The Chiefs usually play Denver tough, and we have a feeling they will pull this one out on the road.

Call:
Kansas City                          22
Denver                                  20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: GB +3.5
Over/Under: Over 47.5

Analysis:
The Eagles secondary is putrid, and it is one that Aaron Rodgers can exploit. However, the Packers secondary is even worse due to attrition. This might be another shootout, so just hide your eyes and take a pick either way. Or not.

Call:
Green Bay                           29
Philadelphia                      24
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

2016 NFL Week 12 Powre Rankings


2016 NFL Week 12 Powre Rankings
M.D. Wright
11.22.2016

1. Dallas Cowboys (9-1).
They have the best record right now, but there are three teams they want no parts of in the playoffs, and they are almost certainly going to run into one of them in their first playoff game.

Unless they blow the division.

2. Oakland Raiders (8-2).
The Oakland Raiders marched into Mexico City with a mammoth offensive line, acrobatic wide receivers, punishing running backs, a superb :”corner linebackers” and an extraordinary young quarterback vying for the league’s Most Valuable Player award at the conclusion of the season, and left the match up with the Houston Texans with a scintillating 27-20 win (John Facenda Voice).

3. Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1).
Seattle will likely do as they normally do this time of year: not lose another regular season game.

4. New York Football Giants (7-3).
Considering the Giants have not gotten out of third gear all year offensively (and it isn’t defenses that are stopping them from doing so), and their defense has held four straight opponents to six total points in the last four fourth quarters, the Giants defense is the “closer” that teams need if they want to make deep playoff runs.

5. New England Patriots (8-2).
You don’t get points for beating San Francisco. Everyone does that. If not for Jeff Fisher being Jeff Fisher, the 49ers would be 0-10. And, for those who were actually watching the game, the Patriots were struggling through three quarters of this game. San Francisco was within one score until the Niners missed strip sacking Tom Brady by a fingernail, instead leading into a long catch and run by Malcolm Mitchell that put the game out of reach.

6. Denver Broncos (7-3).
The B-men got their bye at the right time, and should be getting Aqib Talib and a couple of others back as they attempt to maintain pace with the Raiders in the AFC West.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3).
A mildly surprising loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home, but most expected a close game anyway. We’ve just become so accustomed to the Chiefs winning those games. Jameis Winston made winning these types of games an art at Florida State in 2014, however.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-4).
The bye won’t fix the Falcons’ defensive shortcomings, and Matt Ryan’s inability to win in cold weather games in November and December.

9. Detroit Lions (6-4).
THE LIONS?!?!?!

10. Washington Redskins (6-3-1).
Their offense is efficient, which masks their defensive shortcomings. We do not know how long this will last, however. A stiff test awaits in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

11. Miami Dolphins (6-4).
The Fins have quietly won five straight games; the latest coming in thrilling and gutsy fashion when Ryan Tannehill looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history along with Marc Wilson, before awakening late to lead two scoring drives, including the game-winner.

12. Houston Texans (6-4).
This team is lucky that half its wins have come against the woeful AFC South.

13. Minnesota Vikings (6-4).
Minnesota is equally lucky that the Cards out-Viked the Vikes in this one. They’re not “back on track” in a game they very well should have lost.

14. Buffalo Bills (5-5).
Rex’s Bills needed a win in the worst way and thoroughly mashed the Bengals in the process of achieving that win.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5).
The Steelers still have a lot of work to do defensively if they expect to win their division (likely their only route to the playoffs) and do any damage once there.

16. Indianapolis Colts (5-5).
Does anyone outside of the Colts fandom like watching this team or take them seriously?

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5).
Despite some ghastly performances, the Bucs are only one game out of first place in the NFC South. Bears watching. Jameis Winston is putting up monstrous statistics this season.

18. Baltimore Ravens (5-5).
Joe Flacco is one delusional cat. His postgame comments included a proclamation that they should have beaten Dallas, yet he overlooked Dennis Pitta being wide open on at least four or five occasions when he could have exploited Dallas’ defense and made poor decisions with the ball instead.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5).
They are who we thought they were.

20. Tennessee Titans (5-6).
As you see, the Titans can’t seem to get out of their own way when they are in close games late.

21. Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1).
Carson Palmer just needs to hang them up. This team has a young core and can be good for years, but he’s not taking them anywhere.

22. Carolina Panthers (4-6).
The Panthers are still within striking distance, but they are going to need another annual collapse by Atlanta (and Tampa, for that matter) if they have any hopes of winning the division. And that may be without all-world Luke Kuechly for a while.

23. San Diego Chargers (4-6).
The Bolts have to practically win out to have any hopes of making the playoffs. Should they get there, no one is going to want to play this team.

24. New Orleans Saints (4-6).
You can always count on the Saints being mediocre on the road on grass.

25. Green Bay Packers (4-6).
We have seen some people still ranking the Packers in the mid-teens after losing four straight games (MIKE FLORIO, who picked them to win the NFC) but this team is just not good. And they’re down to signing guys off the street to START GAMES.

26. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1).
The Bengals season is over.

27. Los Angeles Rams (4-6).
Jared Goff wasn’t as bad as he was in the preseason, but he wasn’t great, either.

28. New York Jets (3-7).
The Jets also lost in their bye week.

29. Chicago Bears (2-8).
The Bears have been feisty even if they’ve lost all of these games, but Jay Cutler is now out for season, and his last image on the field in a Bears uniform may be crumpling under the collapse of Johnathan Hankins, Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul on top of him, injuring his shoulder at Giants Stadium in Week 11. His time with the Bears is almost certainly over.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8).
“The best 2-8 team I’ve ever seen” — Rex Ryan. Wait, is that a compliment?

31. San Francisco 49ers (1-9).
We are two and a half months into the season and still wondering how they not only beat the Rams, but shut them out.

32. Cleveland Browns (0-11).
They just need to finish the tank job and fill as many of the holes along their offensive and defensive lines, and secondary as possible this offseason. In a draft where none of the QBs are future Hall of Famers or even perennial All-Pros, it is probably a good thing that the Browns don’t necessarily need one; that is, if Cody Kessler can ever stay healthy.

 

2016 NFL Week 11 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)


2016 NFL Week 11 Bettor’s Guide (Audio Embedded)
M.D. Wright
11.18.2016

Audio Analysis Here

We’ve settled in nicely with picking money lines in recent weeks, but we still have more ground to catch up with on the spreads. However, a week above .500 ATS is always a plus in today’s NFL.

Last Week:
SU: 9-5
ATS: 8-6

Season:
SU: 93-52-2
ATS: 77-68-2
_________________________________________________________________

Week 11: (CAR -3, OVER 52).
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
My Call: TEN +3
Over/Under: Over 52.5

Analysis:
The Colts are coming off a bye week, which they hope will help them get back some of the legions of players who were banged up in the first half of the season for them. They will need it. The Titans have found something with their offense, and it will continue to be difficult to slow them; particularly a weak defense like the one the Colts possess. However, the Titans’ pass defense is sometimes ghastly — although this is specifically the secondary — as such, you can pretty much bet that the over will hit. The spread is a different story. Given the Titans’ propensity for critical late-game turnovers in close games, it would be wise to stay away from the spread in this one, although we think the Titans pull off a pivotal road win with the potential to pull into a first place tie with Houston (should the Texans lose to the Raiders in Mexico City on Monday Night).

Call:
Tennessee                        31
Indianapolis                    27
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
My Call: JAX +6.5
Over/Under: Under 47.5

Analysis:
The Jaguars are in flux. Their coach is hanging by a thread in terms of keeping his job. LB Telvin Smith lost his brother last week, and welcomed a new son during the week, which naturally inclined him to take a brief leave from the team, before returning to practice on Friday. We have seen players lose a loved one and come out extra inspired to play at their absolute zenith. Smith plays this way as it is, and if he plays Sunday, it will be interesting to watch. The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter in every game this season, winning five. They seem to have more balance offensively, but their defense is dodgy.

Blake Bortles just cannot be trusted, period. Home or away.

Call:
Jacksonville                      17
Detroit                               23
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
My Call: TB +7.5
Over/Under: Over 44.5

Analysis:
Tampa’s offensive line cannot hold up against the Chiefs, and Justin Houston may be back for this game, as well. The question here is will Jameis Winston pull rabbits out of his hat against this stifling defense or will the Chiefs turn over the Bucs repeatedly, only for the Bucs to fight back to earn a backdoor cover late?

Call:
Tampa Bay                    23
Kansas City                  26
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Chicago Bears vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
My Call: NYG -7.5
Over/Under: Over 44

Analysis:
The Giants’ pass rush has come alive of late, and the Bears offensive line is in shambles. Pernell McPhee’s midweek chatter reeks of someone who knows they will lose and is looking to psyche out his opponent and convince himself of something that likely will not happen.

Call:
Chicago                          16
NY Giants                      31
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis, Minnesota
My Call: ARZ +2.5
Over/Under: Under 40

Analysis:
The Vikes will be lucky to find the end zone in this game.

Call:
Arizona                            19
Minnesota                        6
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
My Call: BUF +2.5
Over/Under: Under 47.5

Analysis:
This game may very well be a mirror image of the Bengals’ last game in East Rutherford on Monday night. Percy Harvin will start for Buffalo, and the Bills have all but said that they are going to make sure he gets the ball as frequently as possible. Unlike Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor can evade Geno Atkins, who will have a field day with Eric Wood out for season for Buffalo at center. Both teams are playing for their playoff lives, so expect an intense game. Whose moxie do you trust more? Taylor’s against the plethora of zone looks that the Bengals employ all game, or Dalton’s against Rex Ryan’s constant exotic blitzes?

Call:
Buffalo                         23
Cincinnati                   20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
My Call: BAL +7
Over/Under: Under 45

Analysis:
Why are the Ravens getting this many points? Timmy Jernigan is iffy for this game, but it appears that Elvis Dumervil and Jimmy Smith will return. The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL. Other than the Giants earlier this season, the Ravens haven’t faced this stiff of a front seven capable of stifling Ezekiel Elliott. The Ravens will force Dak Prescott to make plays downfield, and not on roll outs waiting for Cole Beasley and Jason Witten to outflank a defender.

The question is can the Ravens do enough offensively? Joe Flacco has been so up and down the past three seasons that it is impossible to gauge how he will play one week to the next. The Ravens have some questions on their offensive line, despite a pretty mediocre pass rush from Dallas (although DeMarcus Lawrence has re-emerged after returning from his suspension).

Call:
Baltimore                            20
Dallas                                    17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
My Call: PIT -8
Over/Under: Over 46

Analysis:
As bad as the Steelers have been on the road, not even they will lose to the Browns.

Call:
Pittsburgh                       30
Cleveland                        17
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, California
My Call: MIA -1.5
Over/Under: Under 40

Analysis:
So you’re going to throw Jared Goff — who was seeing ghosts all preseason, and has had no regular season game action all season — into the fire behind an offensive line that cannot block for Todd Gurley (which is a glaring concern, considering Gurley’s immense talent), couldn’t protect Case Keenum, and against a Dolphins defense that ate Philip Rivers alive last week, and has had a resurgence overall of late? Vintage Jeff Fisher. Considering the issues the Rams have, and how they’ve mortgaged the rest of this decade in terms of draft picks, for all intents and purposes, the Rams should have sat Goff all season until they shored up their massive shortcomings.

Call:
Miami                            19
Los Angeles                   3
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, California
My Call: NE -13
Over/Under: Over 51

Analysis:
We know the 49ers took the Cards to the final second of the game last week, and we know the Patriots defense isn’t really that good (some of us knew this all along), but don’t get crazy here.

Call:
New England                      34
San Francisco                    20
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field
Seattle, Washington
AMERICA’S GAME OF THE WEEK
My Call: SEA -6.5
Over/Under: Under 43

Analysis:
This should be fun. Carson Wentz should be glad that Michael Bennett isn’t playing, but “Uncle” Cliff Avril and Frank Clark are going to give him no relief, either. “Armed” with arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, the Eagles are in deep trouble.

Call:
Philadelphia                           13
Seattle                                     27
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: WSH -2.5
Over/Under: Over 50.5

Analysis:
We just do not think the Packers can stop the efficient Redskins offense. None of the other platitudes really matter.

Call:
Green Bay                      27
Washington                  34
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders
Estadio Azteca/Azteca Stadium
Mexico City, Mexico
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
My Call: OAK -6
Over/Under: Under 46

Analysis:
The Raiders defense has been spotty all year, and they still have not gotten Aldon Smith back in reinstatement from his season-long suspension, or Mario Edwards, Jr. The Raiders will need both of them if they hope to win the AFC in the end. For now, they may not need these guys against a stodgy Texans offense. The Texans defense may slow the Raiders for a while, but they cannot consistently stop Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts, while stifling the Raiders’ three-headed rushing attack. The Raiders also have the best offensive line in the NFL, which has kept Derek Carr clean all season.

Call:
Houston                          16
Oakland                          27
FINAL
_________________________________________________________________

BYE: Atlanta (6-4), Denver (7-3), NY Jets (3-7), San Diego (4-6).