2012 NFL Wild Card Weekend Bettor’s Guide
M.D. Wright
1.2.2013
Talk about saving the best for last, huh? I had my best week of the season in Week 17, but then again, December NFL is easier to handicap than September and October NFL, so let’s be completely transparent here. I finished the regular season just a few notches below my career average for SU (.627; .605 in 2012) and still well below my career average for ATS (.579; .484 in 2012).
Last Week:
SU: 14-2
ATS: 11-5
Season:
SU: 155-101
ATS: 124-128-4
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
***AFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF***
Saturday, January 5, 2013
4:30 PM EST
My Call: CIN +4.5
O/U: 43
Before you even get to the injuries that the Texans have defensively, I still do not take them seriously. They got exposed in December, going 1-3. And were fortunate that the Colts had a crushing turnover when they were driving to potentially take the lead in what was a 23-17 game at the time prior to the turnover. The Bengals front four is going to make overrated Matt Schaub look below average. With the team speed that the Bengals have, Arian Foster will be rendered virtually ineffective. However, if the Bengals don’t rectify a recent issue that they’ve had with their offensive line play — resulting in putrid output by Andy Dalton, they won’t be able to benefit that much. BenJarvus Green-Ellis did return to practice this week, and should be ready to go. The Bengals will NEED him in order to maintain ball control. AJ Green and Marvin Jones should have plenty of opportunities to exploit the Texans’ secondary if the Bengals’ offensive line can contain JJ Watt and Connor Barwin.
Call:
Cincinnati 17
Houston 16
FINAL
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
***NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF***
Saturday, January 5, 2013
8:00 PM EST
My Call: MIN +7.5
O/U: 46
This is a tough call.
The Packers have never stopped Adrian Peterson. EVER. But rushing for 150+ yards may be a tall order this time. The Packers are in a quandary, however. They were determined to prevent Peterson from breaking the all-time rushing record on them. They failed. Leslie Frazier achieved that for them. While the record isn’t a focus of anyone in this game, the Packers can’t suddenly forget to key on Peterson in the run game, because Christian Ponder has had a string — okay TWO — ball games where he’s taken good care of the football, and also run when he’s been given man looks by the defenses the Vikings have faced. This makes it very difficult for the Packers to stack the box in an effort to stuff Peterson. If they only commit six or seven to the box and play coverage, both Peterson and Ponder can exploit the defense underneath.
The Packers played a great offensive game in Week 17, which should bother them, given that they still lost. They will need a similar effort from Aaron Rodgers this week, although the Packers must be concerned with needing Rodgers to pass the ball 40+ times per game just to win. Dujuan Harris was decent enough on the ground in Week 17 to keep the Vikings honest. They will need more of that. The fact that I just do not see the Packers negating Peterson or Ponder from getting the ball to Kyle Rudolph and Jairus Wright just makes me nervous about taking the Packers straight up.
Call:
Minnesota 27
Green Bay 24
FINAL
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
***AFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF***
Sunday, January 6, 2013
1:00 PM EST
My Call: IND +6.5
O/U: 47
As expected, the Ravens went right back to mediocrity after the Giants laid down and quit for them in Week 16. The Ravens just don’t do enough offensively to compensate for a banged-up defense. The Colts are relentless offensively, and the Ravens don’t commit to the run game enough to exploit the main weakness of the Colts — their inability to stop the run. No one on the Ravens’ roster is capable of taking over the game in the pass game; particularly given that the Colts’ secondary is active enough and are ballhawks for the inaccurate throws that Joe Flacco will likely throw. This game will be close, however, because Andrew Luck takes liberties with the football downfield, as well as having a tendency to hold the ball too long (a problem that Joe Flacco also has), leading to potential strip sacks. There will be a couple of wild swings in this game with turnovers, so watch out for a late cover by either team. I am going to go with the Colts here, though.
Call:
Indianapolis 20
Baltimore 16
FINAL
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
***NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF***
Sunday, January 6, 2013
4:30 PM EST
My Call: SEA -3
O/U: 46
All of the Wild Card matchups have a modicum of intrigue, but not like this game does.
Sadly, for Washington fans, Robert Griffin is not 100%. He would have needed to be to face this Seattle defense that features seven starters and a rotational defensive end — Bruce Irvin — who run a 4.6 or faster. Additionally, they just played an eighth (Walter Thurmond) on IR. The point is, if there is any team that contain the stretch play-heavy Washington offense and keep Griffin between the tackles, it is this Seahawks defense. Griffin will have to completely fool the back seven of Seattle to get plays downfield, because Hankerson and Garçon will be hard-pressed to do anything against Brandon Browner and Dick Sherman. They can hope to get Santana Moss free against Marcus Trufant or Jeremy Lane, but that’s hoping against hope. If the Redskins are unable to dominate in the run game, which I do not see happening, they are going to have trouble sustaining drives or scoring points. Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin will force Griffin to make decisions quicker than he would like.
Conversely, the Redskins’ defense, which features several blitzes, could get them into massive trouble. Russell Wilson was sacked six times in Week 17 by the team that ended up leading the NFL in sacks. The Redskins are on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to sacks. Taking an extra man (or two, as Redskins’ defensive coordinator Jim Haslett tends to do at times) out of coverage could not only spell rushing lanes for Marshawn Lynch, but give Russell Wilson an opportunity to either make throws on the run to game-changer Golden Tate and his big receiver, Sidney Rice, but also run for yardage himself. Unlike Griffin, Wilson’s wheels are fine, and there’s no one outside of DeAngelo Hall that can run with Wilson. Too many “ifs” have to occur for Washington to win. The only “if” for Seattle is losing “IF” they turn the ball over 2-3 times, which they have not been prone to do since the first half of the season against an actual good defense.
Call:
Seattle 34
Washington 23
FINAL
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You are a joke! Eli isn’t even the third best qb in his family let alone the division!